In July 2025, the Department of War’s Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) convened an Aluminum Wargame to assess national readiness to meet aluminum demand in a hypothetical large‑scale conflict beginning in 2027. The exercise simulated a five-fold surge in demand of aluminum, a consequential scenario given that domestic production of primary aluminum currently only meets 15% of U.S. demand. 
Roughly 80 participants with expertise spanning supply‑chain logistics, defense material requirements, and public policy were tasked with identifying and prioritizing actions to strengthen domestic capacity. The exercise revealed alarming gaps in domestic capacity, traced the erosion of domestic smelter capacity to China’s non-market actions, and underscored the urgency of robust policy to revitalize production at home.
However, the vulnerabilities experts identified in a hypothetical 2027 scenario became an operational reality in March 2026 when the conflict between the United States and Iran intensified. Damages to energy infrastructure and aluminum smelters in Qatar, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates have put key imports that the U.S. defense depends on in jeopardy.
Congress must act now. The U.S. cannot control geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—but it can reduce its exposure to them.
SAFE’s Center for Strategic Industrial Materials conducted an analysis of the DLA’s Aluminum Wargame and found three key themes:
- We must think beyond stockpiles.
- The aluminum problem requires an energy solution.
- Aluminum scrap is a strategic asset.
