This op-ed originally appeared in the Washington Examiner on November 27, 2024. Read the original.
Robbie Diamond and Morgan Ortagus
The results of the 2024 presidential election presented an opportunity for the United States to chart a bold course in addressing one of the most pressing challenges of our time: China’s dominance in critical minerals and advanced manufacturing. While Washington has acknowledged the Chinese Communist Party as a grave threat to national security, action to address China’s control over America’s critical mineral supply has been insufficient. During our recent visits to South Korea and Japan, allies voiced alarm over Beijing’s readiness to leverage this control at our collective expense. Their warnings should not be ignored.
This vulnerability jeopardizes our ability to win the competition over tomorrow’s technologies. If the right investments and policies are not advanced quickly, the economic and strategic ramifications could make the OPEC oil embargoes of the 1970s seem trivial by comparison. Without bolstering domestic and allied critical mineral production and processing, reforming regulatory frameworks, and securing the resources needed for energy transition and defense, the United States risks ceding technological and strategic leadership to China.
Currently, China dominates the global critical minerals market, controlling 90% of processing and leading production of 24 out of 36 critical minerals essential to U.S. supply chains. This control gives the CCP the ability unilaterally to shut off swaths of the U.S. economy and those of allies by withholding both the building blocks and products of the 21st century: microchips, permanent magnets, satellites, and more. In the past, Washington has used sanctions to deprive adversaries of critical resources; China would not hesitate to do the same, using its mineral supremacy to achieve its geopolitical goals.
The consequences for Indo-Pacific security are particularly stark. U.S. military platforms such as the Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, F-15 engines, and Black Hawk helicopters depend on rare earths sourced from China. Advanced systems such as lasers, radar, and night vision goggles require the same materials. Tokyo and Seoul face similar challenges as they attempt to reduce their defense reliance on Chinese supply chains.
Some hesitation to prioritize mineral policy as a national security issue stems from its association with the energy transition. While these resources are indeed crucial for clean energy technologies, including batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines, ignoring their strategic importance for defense readiness would be a grave mistake. China is not a profit-maximizing economic actor but a state that prioritizes its national interests over market dynamics. The United States cannot afford to hope that Beijing will refrain from weaponizing its control over critical minerals. We live in an era where the “national security” label is slapped on to policies of every variety, but it would be a grave error to underestimate the importance of mineral policy.
The new administration has a unique opportunity to reverse these dynamics and protect America and its allies from Beijing’s mineral extortion. First, the United States must harness its abundant natural resources by passing measures such as the Energy Permitting Reform Act, which has already garnered bipartisan support. Unlocking domestic energy infrastructure and mineral extraction potential while adhering to high environmental standards is essential to reducing dependence on foreign supply chains.
However, addressing China’s market dominance requires more than domestic efforts. China’s core advantage is its ability to manipulate the market with oversupply and non-economic actions. To counter this, the United States must strengthen supply chain security by pursuing bilateral mineral agreements with trusted allies. Diplomatic initiatives should focus on creating non-Chinese supply chains for critical minerals and developing the infrastructure to process these materials domestically. Such efforts will reduce reliance on a single foreign power and build resilience in allied supply chains.
America and its allies must lean on their shared strengths to counter China’s predatory tactics. Transparency, rule of law, human rights, and high standards starkly contrast Beijing’s practices. The Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act is a prime example of how these principles can be applied, ensuring that products made under exploitative conditions are kept out of U.S. markets. We should push our allies to do the same. Expanding these measures to critical minerals would protect the industrial base, support workers, and uphold human rights while enhancing national security.
In addition to defensive measures, the United States must invest in the energy technologies of the future. This includes unshackling the private sector from burdensome regulation, embracing consumer choice, and offering tax incentives to drive capital toward innovation in battery production, software-defined vehicles, and other promising technologies. Winning the battery competition with China will reduce reliance on Chinese minerals and position the United States as a leader in the global energy transition.
Securing battery supply chains is as vital to national security as semiconductor manufacturing, which the CHIPS Act has addressed. Batteries are increasingly critical to military platforms, energy storage, and civilian electric vehicles. A robust battery manufacturing ecosystem — bolstered by public-private partnerships, research and development incentives, and domestic production facility investments — is essential to maintaining both military and commercial advantages.
The new administration must act swiftly. The consequences of inaction will soon be irreversible. By taking bold steps now, the United States can reduce its reliance on China, secure its technological future, and strengthen alliances. The alternative is far less appealing: letting Beijing’s mineral dominance dictate the terms of America’s economic and security policies in the decades to come.
Robbie Diamond is founder, president, and CEO of SAFE, an energy and national security think tank. Morgan Ortagus is the founder of POLARIS National Security Foundation, a former State Department spokesperson for President-elect Donald Trump, a U.S. Navy Reserve officer.
