Oil Security Index: July 2014

The Oil Security Index is designed to enable policymakers and the general public to understand and compare the relative oil security of thirteen countries around the world.

When launched in October 2013, SAFE’s Oil Security Index was hailed as an essential tool for those seeking greater insight into both what constitutes oil security, and which countries are most oil secure. The Index included then-current and historical data tracing national rankings back to 2000.

In this update, SAFE adds data through Q1 2014 and revises the rankings accordingly. The Index’s seven metrics capture three core aspects of oil security: the structural dependency of countries’ economies on oil, the economic exposure of countries to oil prices and the changes in those prices, and the physical supply security of a country’s domestic and imported oil.

In addition to pinpointing various global market highlights, the July 2014 update includes a spotlight on Saudi Arabia. Presently, the majority of OPEC’s 2 mbd of spare capacity is concentrated in Saudi Arabia, but numerous forecasts suggest that the call on OPEC will increase in Q3 2014 by an additional .9 mbd, bringing global spare capacity to a thin 1 mbd.

The Oil Security Index’s latest analysis also focuses on China, a country grappling with rising demand for personal mobility and increasing oil consumption required to meet it. Since the turn of the century, China’s oil demand has more than doubled from 4.5 mbd to its current level of 10.5 mbd, adding the equivalent of today’s Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom combined to the marketplace. China is among the weakest in the Index in terms of “Total Spending on Net Oil Imports” and “Oil Supply Security.”