SAFE’s Energy Security Fact Pack gives readers a data-driven overview of the latest trends in energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics and prices, and up-to-date information on fuel efficiency and alternative fuel vehicles.
The Energy Security Fact Pack for Q4 2016 examines the pace of the oil market’s rebalancing, continued price volatility, record electric vehicle sales, and more.
During a time of heightened uncertainty in energy markets, SAFE’s Fact Pack includes the following insights:
- The past two years have tested the resiliency of the American oil industry. OPEC’s November 2014 decision to protect market share helped crash global prices and eliminate more than 200,000 American jobs in a then-thriving energy sector.
- U.S. oil production fell 0.5 million barrels per day (mbd) year-over-year (y-o-y) in 2016 as the rig count dropped by more than 80%.
- OPEC and its partners control the vast majority of global oil reserves, and has used its immense market power to dictate terms. Recent y-o-y declines in U.S. oil production coincide with rising OPEC supply, the result of a strategy to undercut higher cost production and
- The American oil industry has adapted, targeting the most oil-rich opportunities and reducing costs. U.S. crude oil production increased in Q4 (its first quarterly increase since Q1 2015) and is forecast to rise further in.
- The transportation sector also promises opportunities for job creation and strengthening of
U.S. energy security. Sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) reached historic highs in Q4, propelled in part by a wider selection of new vehicle models. - U.S.-based manufacturing of PEV and autonomous vehicle technology is expected to grow significantly. Both will help improve transportation sector efficiency and reduce oil intensity, protecting the United States against severe oil price volatility and OPEC’s actions.
- U.S. demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel averaged 14.2 mbd in Q4, effectively flat y-o-y. Total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) has increased y-o-y for eleven consecutive quarters. In Q4, VMT rose by approximately 1.4%.
- U.S. crude oil and petroleum product imports were 10.0 mbd in Q4 (+0.1 mbd y-o-y) after falling from a four year high in Q3. OPEC’s share of U.S. imports remained around 34% y-o-y at 3.4 mbd, with Saudi Arabia the leading source (1.0 mbd of imports).
- Approximately 49,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were sold in Q4 (+46% y-o-y), the best quarter on record. Popular models included Tesla’s Model S and Model X, as well as the Chevrolet Volt. The six best-selling vehicles accounted for approximately 70% of total sales.
